At this point I’ve seen enough movies and done enough research that I can finally make my picks – and over a week to go too! We’re starting with the Acting Categories because I want to start with a bang, and because several of them are pretty locked up already so my thoughts are more concrete.

Each category has a result list of who I think will win, who I think should win if it were actually up to me, who could potentially steal, and who really has only a tiny chance.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)

Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

Carol wasn’t even close to Blanchett’s best movie and performance. Jennifer Lawrence was nominated for a lackluster film because she’s immensely popular right now. Charlotte Rampling didn’t even merit a BAFTA nod, and they generally weight British films highest just on principle.

That leaves only Ronan and Larson in my book. Ronan did lovely work, and I’m sure this will be far from her last nomination. However, Larson’s portrayal as an abducted woman raising her son in a one-room shack was masterfully emotional and should give her the win.

Will Win : Brie Larson
Should Win : Brie Larson
Possible Upset : Saoirse Ronan
Longest Shot : Charlotte Rampling

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

This category seems more even to me than the actresses, though I’m writing this having not seen Trumbo, so I can’t speak much to that one unfortunately. Matt Damon played his role as a stranded astronaut with a wicked sense of humor delightfully well, but sci-fi films are often long shots from the get go. Redmayne threw himself into another role based upon a real person, but it won’t beat his turn as Stephen Hawking last year.

Fassbender is actually, probably surprisingly, my favorite of the group- Steve Jobs was a film I enjoyed far more than I expected to, and he played the titular genius asshole so well. However, favorites rarely translate to wins, and Leonardo DiCaprio has been winning everything. His portrayal of Hugh Glass looked taxing as hell, but I’ve seen better from him (especially since he barely spoke during the film). He’s a solid second place in my imaginary awards show, but he’ll win the Oscar for sure.

Will Win : Leonardo DiCaprio
Should Win : Michael Fassbender
Possible Upset : Michael Fassbender
Longest Shot : Matt Damon

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

This is probably my most difficult category to judge (of the acting awards at least). I’ve seen all these films and thoroughly enjoyed all of the performances. Jennifer Jason Leigh was wickedly brutal in Hateful Eight, Rooney Mara was just as much a star in Carol as Blanchett was, and McAdams rounded out an amazing ensemble cast in Spotlight.

But this fight will go down to Vikander and Winslet. I honestly think Vikander did even better work in Ex Machina, but she was the best part of The Danish Girl for me aside from the nostalgic establishing shots of Nyhavn. On the other hand, Winslet really stood out in Steve Jobs, going toe to toe with Fassbender and creating something memorable. It’s a tough call, but I’m leaning towards Vikander. She had an amazing year.

Will Win : Alicia Vikander
Should Win : Alicia Vikander
Possible Upset : Kate Winslet
Longest Shot : Rachel McAdams


Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)

Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

This is another category that is rough as hell to pick, and I could see this going in just about any direction. It also doesn’t help that several other wonderful performances missed being recognized (Benecio Del Toro in Sicario,, anyone?) so my radar, and thus my guess, could just be terribly off.

That said, Stallone was really quite good in Creed, and the Academy (for better or worse) loves to award people for their body of work. Rylance was also fantastic in Bridge of Spies, I think I liked Hardy in The Revenant more than DiCaprio, and I enjoyed pretty much everything about both Spotlight and The Big Short. Truthfully I am fine with anyone taking this Oscar, but Stallone has been getting lots of recognition so my money would go towards that. In my imaginary ceremony? Mark Ruffalo. Or Rylance. Ehhh, we’ll go Ruffalo.

Will Win : Sylvester Stallone
Should Win : Mark Ruffalo
Possible Upset : Mark Rylance
Longest Shot : No one, really

So what do you think? Thoughts? Opinions? Still fuming over no nomination for Charleze Theron in Mad Max like I am? Let me know!