What a year for movies! I can’t remember the last time that I was totally unsure of what would take home Best Picture. It could literally be anything this time- and from a selection of movies that span genres, budgets, themes, and experiences. I’m pretty excited to see what happens tonight, aren’t you?

I made it to 47 of the 59 nominated films this year  (foreign films being my worst category for once), and as with every year, it’s difficult to reconcile my own feelings with the strange politics that drive the Oscars votes. Thankfully there is at least some overlap between the movies I’ve been recommending to anyone with a pulse (Icarus, Baby Driver, Blade Runner) and those that will likely take home statues.

As explored in previous years, there are a number of guild and critic awards that tend to predict the Academy Award winners with a certain level of accuracy. This year, several of the acting categories are locked down- but much of the rest is up for grabs. Honestly though, as long as Blade Runner 2049 wins for Cinematography I’m happy with whatever else plays out. Deakins is long overdue, and that film was beautiful.

Before I get into my official picks, I have just a few quick-hit comments on the nominees.

  • The Square and Phantom Thread were underwhelming to me. Sorry, not sorry.
  • I think that Timothee Chalamet should win best actor, but he’s too young and for some reason, people really liked The Darkest Hour. Oldman is a wonderful actor, but that movie was also very… meh.
  • I’m insanely torn about best picture, because I did really love Three Billboards, but will a movie who got no directing nomination win?
  • Coco not winning best animated film would be the biggest upset ever, but you should all watch The Breadwinner right now. Right. Now.
  • No, you don’t need to watch the original Blade Runner to appreciate the new one, but it helps.
  • I want to see more from wonder woman Greta Gerwig. Lady Bird was an amazing first effort, so I’m stoked to see what she can bring in the future.
  • Watching Heaven is a Traffic Jam, Kong, Coco, and Heroin(e) all back to back is a weird experience.

And now… the list.